Background:
Texas DSHS New Case data reporting evolved during 2020. At the beginning (March-May), the state needed to establish testing sites all over the State and promote their use. Positivity metric for cities and counties used these results to establish whether the pandemic was "under control" or "spreading". In order for such data to be "significant", data needed to be timely and of a sufficiently large sample. Unfortunately, this was not the case in the Panhandle, the Rio Grande Valley, and may counties along the US, Mexico Border. When surges occurred, the number of Covid-19 hospitalizations was high. Case data lagged because capacity was limited; also, patients were tested multiple times during their hospital stay.
During the Summer of 2020, Texas DSHS installed new data infrastructure to transfer data from County Health officials to the DSHS data system. Prior to these changes, the system relied on Fax machines, e-mails, and various other devices. Afterwards, the system was consolidated and integrated into an improved dashboard.
More recently, the Texas DSHS incorporated probable cases, backlogged cases, and the need for "de-duplication" (multiple tests for same individual, for example a patient under the care of a physician; the system recognizes that the individual is already in the system and only counts his/her case once).
During the Summer, 2020 and Winter, 2021 surges, State resources were taxed to their limits and New Cases data entry may have lagged. As a result, the reporting data were often two to three weeks later than the case specimen. While the official Texas DSHS spreadsheet may have been updated, my Cases spreadsheet contained the data as it was originally reported, "As Reported.
The purpose of this article is to compare differences between the DSHS updated New Cases Data, "Reset" and the "As Reported" Data between June 7, 2020 (Week 11) and January 31, 2021 (Week 45).
Executive Summary:
Backlogged New Case data ("Reset") from 2020 was downloaded from the Spreadsheet Texas DSHS Spreadsheet https://www.dshs.texas.gov/coronavirus/TexasCOVID-19NewCasesOverTimebyCounty.xlsx was incorporated in the TexasCovid19Trail spreadsheet and compared against As Reported Data for each of the 5 regions. The results are not different enough to change any of the Weekly Reports as published. Central Texas results were the most similar and those of the Border the most different in magnitude and peak dates. These Reset data were overlayed with Hospitalization reports for the same weekly entries and trended well.
A similar update will be performed for the period February through April, 2021 by the end of March 2022.
Methodology:
While the DSHS updated any previous day's data based on newly received results forwarded from test labs, doctor's offices, and County Health Departments in order to improve the accuracy of reporting, my records were only appended one just-completed-week-at-a-time. Initially, the two sets of results agreed. Over time, however, the "As Reported Results" were offset by the number of cases which lagged.
Bar Graph plots of the two sets of results will illustrate the differences in number of new cases (y-axis) and dates (y-axis ).
New Cases: Central Texas
Figure 1a shows a tight comparison of the two spreadsheets. In general, the data DSHS Reset results were larger than the "As Reported"; however, the time-series profile is the same with Summer, 2020 Surge at 7/19 (Week 17) and Winter, 2021 at 1/17 (Week 43).
New Cases: Gulf Coast
Figure 1b shows a tight comparison of the two spreadsheets. In contrast to Figure 1a, the data DSHS Reset results were smaller than the As Reported's. As in the Central Texas case, the time-series profile is the same for both sets of results with Summer, 2020 Surge at 7/19 (Week 17) and Winter, 2021 at 1/17 (Week 43).
New Cases: North Texas
Figure 1c shows data DSHS Reset (Green) results alternating with As Reported (Blue) in relative magnitude. For example, when Blue results are higher than Green for a given week, the subsequent set are reversed (i.e. Blue results are lower than Green). This result leads to an offset in peak cases for the two time-series profiles: Reset {Summer, 2020 Surge at 7/19 (Week 17) and Winter, 2021 Surge at 1/17 (Week 43)}; As Reported {Summer, 2020 Surge at 7/26, (Week 18) and Winter, 2021 Surge at 1/17 (Week 43)}
New Cases: Border
Figure 1d shows data DSHS Reset (Green) results alternating with Blue as above. For most of 2020, Reset values are lower than As Reported's. Both sets of results show multiple Winter peaks which correspond to Northern parts of the border peaking earlier than the rest of the state and the Rio Grande Valley peaking later, along with the Gulf Coast: Blue: 8/16, (Week 11); Green: 8/9, (Week 10); Blue: 11/15, (Week 34); Blue: 1/17,(Week 43); Green: 11/8, (Week 33); 1/17, (Week 43).
New Cases: Panhandle
Figure 1e shows data DSHS Reset ( Green) results alternating with DSHS As Reported (Blue) as above. For most of 2020, Reset values are lower than As Reported's. Both sets of results show broad peaks for both Winter and Summer Surges - lasting on the order of 4 weeks:
Summer, 2020 (Blue and Green: 7/12- 8/9, Weeks 16-20); Winter, 2021 (Blue and Green: 11/15 to 12/6, Weeks 34 to 37)
Comparison of Reset Cases vs. Hospitalizations by Region
Figure 2 provides bar graph overlays for Weekly Average Hospitalizations and Cases using the 2020 Reset Data for New Weekly Cases and As Reported Data for 2021. The 2020 results indicate that cases are a good leading indicator for Hospitalizations. Winter 2021 As Reported data will be overwritten with Reset values by the end of March, 2022.
Yorumlar