With Covid-19 Hospitalization Rates plunging, we are seeing speculation that the pandemic may be over. Even though we have been here before, "hope springs eternal." There is a school of thought that surges come every six months - putting our next one at July, one year after we experienced the Delta variant.
Between now and then, there will be a rush to schedule other procedures, other classes, other travel, court cases with juries, sports, the Rodeo,...Don't get me wrong - although Hospitalization Rates are declining, we are still 6-8 weeks away from last Summer's pre-Delta low numbers. And, the Fatalities from peak Omicron occupancy will also come out in the same timeframe. Meanwhile, mask usage is way down despite Regional Vaccination Rates that are well short of the 70% target which should have been met by the end of 2021. And, 8 TSA regions have five or less Adult ICU Beds available, down from last week's 12.
Hospitalization Rates Figure 1 provides context for the latest portion of the Covid-19 Rollercoaster. With less than seven weeks into the Omicron Variant, decreasing numbers of Covid-19 patients are currently hospitalized. On a per-capita basis, the Gulf Coast has the lowest (31 Covid-19 patients per 100k population) and the Panhandle the highest (47). The latter is close to results reported for North Texas, and both are similar to the maximum values obtained last August during Delta's peak. Central Texas and the Border show a less pronounced decrease with daily numbers that oscillate around the reported weekly average. In both cases, a wider bell curve seems to be developing based on a younger demographic and longer hospital stay (in exchange for higher fatalities when compared with the Gulf Coast - to be confirmed as these data come in for January).
A Table of ICU Bed Availability (Adults) for the past 4 weeks, based on end-of-week reporting is provided by Figure 2:
A vertical scan of the rows shows that six of the regions (C, D, I, L, M, and T) have had their ICU resources stretched thin over the past month. Of these, 2 were in North Texas, 2 were on the Border, and 2 were in Central Texas. The Gulf Coast and Panhandle have not had the load of Severe patients during January experienced by the rest of the state.
Vaccination Rates Figure 3 reports the latest results for getting the Texas population of 5+ inoculated with 2 doses of Pfizer or Moderna vaccines. In the next few weeks, toddlers will be added to the Eligible Population and there will be a bridge followed by some backtracking in order to convert the latest numbers to the new "basis". Boosters have been added to DSHS's Vaccination Spreadsheet; however, I have not added it to my calculations. Whenever I see a full-vaccinated fatality, I always want to ask - Did they get their Booster?
Note that what was a "tight" race during the first six months of Vaccination, has now split up into a leader in the Border which just exceeded 80%. Compliance at this level and higher has the potential to keep future variants at bay. The Gulf Coast, North Texas and Central Texas are hovering in the upper 50's through lower 60's - not to exceed 70% for another 6 months. This means that the heavy populated areas are likely to see another round of Hospital surges if a new variant of concern arrives in the Summer (July-August). Perhaps all the talk about Omicron wrapping up our Pandemic Times has been counterproductive with respect to keeping the momentum up on getting shots. The Panhandle part of the state is vaccinating its residents at the same rate as Central and North Texas. However, since they got off to a slow start they remain at last place.
Week 99's Report will end with an overlay of Cases and Hospitalizations. Such an overlay was used in the past to demonstrate that the latter is a lagging indicator of the former. However, with the use of rapid tests, the reach of vaccinations, and the fully open Texas economy, those who are ill are less likely to go to the hospital and instead, self-isolate if they do anything to depart from their daily routine.
Figure 4 points to another advantage of the Hospitalization metric: whereas Cases were off the scale due to Omicron's high transmission rate, the Hospitalization values are presently very similar to those reported this time last year. Peaks associated with Delta and the Winter Surge period were achieved despite statements to the effect that Omicron's severity was not as great as Delta or Alpha. These graphics illustrate how with very large number of cases, even a 1 in 100 chance of a case being a Hospitalization (Alpha-rule-of-thumb = 1 in 10), the is able to stretch Hospitals to their surge capacity.
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