Confirmed Cases and Covid-19 Hospitalizations The DSHS has implemented a new system for uploading cases that includes automatic backlogging of cases. Between 12/1 and 12/10, the system was debugged. In the process, 16,884 cases went unreported https://twitter.com/TexasDSHS?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor . The Cases correction contributed to step changes during Week 91. Consequently, this period of data will be flagged and, instead, we will focus on Covid-19 Hospitalization Bed usage for this and future updates.
Figure 1 shows increases across Texas, except for the Gulf Coast. Here, the data
is lined out at levels that equal those seen way back in June, 2020 just before the first Summer Surge.
On a per capita basis, the Panhandle, led by Amarillo (TSA-A), has reversed the Fall's reductions from the Summer's Delta Surge. This means that Hospitals in TSA Regions A and B of the state are entering the Winter season at Covid-19 Bed and ICU usage at levels that are close to matching those of July, 2021 (Delta Surges) and the Winter Surge of 2020 (see Figure 2, https://covid-texas.csullender.com/?tsa=A )
Vaccinations Figure 3 reports the latest Vaccination numbers. These indicate a good week for the Border where several counties achieved a 1% or better increase in the number of fully vaccinated individuals. Even better, Central Texas and the Gulf Coast broke through the 60% threshold with a good 4 months to go in order to achieve 70%, the original target. The latest target requires a change in definition for the term "fully vaccinated" that includes a booster shot. Presently, across the US, it is estimated that only 10% of those who were inoculated before last Summer have obtained their booster. Under the 2-shot protocol, immunity among such groups has waned leading to a misleading sense of optimism.
Omicron Update The news has primed us to expect results back on Omicron investigations in a few days (during Week 92). So far, we have seen exponential increases in the U.K. such that the variant has overtaken their Delta cases. In Texas, multiple specimens have been identified in Harris, Galveston, Fort Bend, Tarrant, and Collin County. Unfortunately, I have not been able to find any central source. Instead, private labs such as Houston Methodist have been reporting their results. Texas DSHS only references Delta on their website and links to the CDC website for more information ("on other variants"). (https://www.dshs.texas.gov/coronavirus/variants-data/).
While everyone is pointing out , so far, all indications are that symptoms are mild compared to Delta. However, with a spread rate between 3 and 4 - the number of cases will compound dramatically and the situation is likely to change - Below is the sequence of cases, starting at 10 and assuming that each person infects 3 people/day: 10, 30, 90, 270, 810, 2430, 7290, 21870, 65610, 196830. In 10 days, then, the number will balloon to 196,830. The current total number of new cases for 12/12/21 was just over 2000. Will we double our cases in 5 days? Probably not because it takes five days for symptoms to appear. But, once the variant reaches a critical mass via some kind of super-spreader event, all of us need to reconsider going to holiday gatherings, entertainment, etc. without masks, without testing kits, and without regard to family and friends who are immunocompromised.
Article of the Week: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/12/fully-vaccinated-omicron-infections/620953/ If I still have your attention, this article will provide a more detailed view of what we are in for.
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