Further decreases in cases, hospitalizations; More vaccinations. However, everything is slowing down - as if coming around a curve. Only El Paso County is different. There, very similar to the end of September, 2020 - cases are up, but not enough to affect Border Regional Results; not enough for exponential increases in hospitalizations; but noticeable and consistent for the past 7 days.
Vaccination Report Figure 1 presents the usual numbers in the usual table. For the first time, not one region had an incremental increase of 1% or more. Instead, changes were
between .6 (Central Texas) and .8% (Gulf Coast and North Texas). With the Vaccination Campaign taking so long, 65+ individuals and those with existing medical conditions who were first in line last Winter for the Pfizer shot are now needing to repeat the exercise as their immunity they are prone to breakthrough infections given Delta's higher transmissibility https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/10/protection-immune-response-fall-after-pfizer-covid-vaccine-data-show . The Texas DSHS is counting these doses in a separate column within the Vaccination Spreadsheet. This total number is reported with no county, age, or other details. Today's table (10/10) reports 750k 3rd doses have been provided.
Hospitalizations Report Figure 2 shows that even though there has been a significant reduction, we are still well above the low numbers we had before Delta came on to the scene.
In general, the number of Covid-19 inpatients match those of late July/early August.
This, despite reports of strong positivity increases in El Paso County. A closer examination of the El Paso TSA data shows increases are not exponential; of concern is that ICU's are occupied. Both trends are reported as follows in Figure 3. And, while usage is high - the Covid-19 fraction is hovering just below 20% - a value close to last year during late
September before the Winter Surge began (exponential increases) in November.
For 2021, it will be important to achieve continued reductions by the Thanksgiving and December holidays. At present, it is not clear whether a plateau or balance between new cases and recoveries plus fatalities is forming. Figures 4 (Central Texas, Border, and Panhandle) and 5 (Gulf Coast and North Texas) provides the Week 82 update.
Notice that one year ago (week ending 10/11), plateaus changed into metrics with a positive slope; however, the numbers were considerably lower than they are now. Of course, the state mask mandate was in place and schools were not all open for face-to-face classes. Vaccinations had not started - and early voting was one week away.
.....Wishing you a safe and relaxing week.
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