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Week 81, 9/27-10/3/2021

The theme for Week 81 is Dicken's Tale of Two Cities: For Best Times ahead, we have the news of falling numbers for Texas Hospitalized Covid-19 Patients: in all five regions, across all Trauma Service Areas, and every day for the last seven days. In the NYTimes Hot Spot Map for the US, Texas's complexion has cleared up considerably https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html . This along with news about Merck's Covid-19 pill and Pfizer's shot for 12- children and toddlers.


However, articles about the cyclic nature of Covid-19, how every x-months, a new surge will happen (See https://fortune.com/2021/08/03/covid-delta-variant-wave-uk-have-already-receded-us/ and https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/01/briefing/delta-peak-covid-caseload.html). These articles are representative of the latest "bear" Covid-19 predictions for the holiday season.


A colleague of mine is a proponent of six-month cycles. I believe that both are right and simply differ on the definition of beginning and end. If the interval is measured as the time between peaks then Figure 1, Texas's Data covering Surge 2, 3, and 4 correspond to cycles of six months (7/11/20 to 1/11/21) and eight months (1/11/21 to 9/12/21). This interval is probably a function of the size of the state, the range of population density, weather, and policy restrictions. It would be interesting to perform a similar evaluation on other states

such as Florida (57% fully vaccinated) and California (59% fully vaccinated) as well as Maine (69% fully vaccinated) and Vermont (70% fully vaccinated). The latter were viewed as high vaccination states whose record would shield them from Delta surges. Recent data has shown otherwise as they are the latest to enter the "red-zone."


Figure 2 breaks down the Statewide Hospitalization numbers by region and plots the results in a per 100,000 population basis. While all regions are 3-4 weeks past

peak Hospitalized Covid-19 patients with the Panhandle showing the highest result, just over 36 average patients averaged over a 7-day week. North Texas is just below 36 weekly average patients followed by Gulf Coast, Central Texas, and the Border. This order matches up well with the Ascending Weekly Vaccination Rates. Today, marks the first time that the Panhandle achieved more inoculations per total population than Central Texas, Gulf Coast, and the Border:


As indicated, Figure 3 shows Central Texas, North Texas, and the Panhandle all delivering an incremental .8% increase in vaccines during Week 81. This result exceeds the Border Region whose increase was lower, at .7%. Given that New England's recent Delta surge supports a higher target to short-circuit future ICU runs, 80-90% Vaccination Rates are necessary. With our window of 4-6 months, the state must hold its course in all things prevention (e.g. Vaccination, Masks, Social Gatherings) if we are going to have the semblance of a celebratory Holiday season.


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