More of the same from last week: decreasing hospitalizations, decreasing cases, increasing fatalities. Data Deja Vu all over again.
Case Reports Then and Now
Figure 1 , to the left, was discussed in our Facebook Days, Week 58's Report. As shown, falling cases trended with higher vaccination rates until the Delta Variant found its way into the community of unvaccinated people and the slope went from negative to positive in the space of two to three weeks.
Before this, the thinking was that "herd immunity" could be achieved once 60-70% of the eligible population would be inoculated. Having achieved high turnout at vaccination sites from the beginning, the Border had moved out in front of the rest of the state. However, once cases did not fall any further, and an unsteady an equilibrium was measured.
Figure 2, below, plots the same metrics updated through Week 80. In this plot, we have divided each region by its total population (2019 estimate, used from Week 1 on) By
placing each set of curves on a per-population basis, we can compare them more readily. Note that the x-axis represents % Vaccinated between Weeks 58 and 80. While this metric is a measure of time, each region has a different range based on the Weekly Vaccination Rate. Early on, the Border data (Pumpkin) have large spaces between them meaning that they were able to get a larger fraction of their counties inoculated. In contrast, the Panhandle data (Red) barely budges. The period of Exponential Increase occurs during the month of July with peaks that occurred in August. During this period, Vaccination Rates picked up in response to high Covid-19 Hospitalizations and efforts to get the younger demographic protected from Delta before classes opened at the end of Summer.
The distribution of y-axis peaks between Regions were discussed in Weeks 78 and 79 in terms of Hospitalizations since Cases, for my work, do not include probable or backlogged reports which show up late. In other words, I do not update my spreadsheets for Weeks 78 and 79 when cases corresponding to these periods show up during Week 80. To compound this problem, many counties no longer report daily; their data can also swell from school district cases which is always provided once per week.
Of note is the result for Week 80. With the Border close to 80% of their 12+ Population Vaccinated, they report the lowest per 100k cases; falling on a line with negative slope are the results for each of the following regions in order of decreasing % Vaccination and increasing cases per population: Gulf Coast (Green) and Hill Country (Blue, aka Central Texas), North Texas (Grey), and Panhandle (Red).
Vaccination Report
Current articles I am reading compare Texas Fatalities with California and Florida. These are done on an overall average and put TSA-E and Q (Dallas and Houston) with G(Longview), H(Lufkin), and I(El Paso). As we know, the Community Spread is very different across the state; Hospital Capacity varies in Rural vs. Urban. Lastly, with "Snowbirds", "Holiday Travel", and "College Towns" all back in business - the story is not over. Whereas 60-70% did not protect the Border from Delta, the state is vulnerable to the next variant to take hold once we are six months down the road and the new "vulnerables", wherever they happen to be, are unknowingly exposed.
This amounts to 24 weeks into the future when today's boosters will have been spent several times over. By the way, how will the state tabulate these shots be tabulated? Will there be a separate category for 3rd shots or will analyses going forward discount the fraction of 65+ vaccinated las Spring? Will such details cause the three primary shots break out from the group as in a car race where some peel off and others keep making the rounds? How will the CDC (or the media including this blog for that matter) be able to distinguish between all the different "vintages" when trying to make sense of what is going on?
For completeness, I have included Figure 3, Week 80's Vaccination Report - although, as I have said above, its days are numbered given where we are in the news/vaccine/seasonal cycle of this pandemic. Note that the Texas DSHS has discontinued its first pass Variants section for one that
includes a reposting of the CDC Site, scaled for Texas's population. I need to study this before saying anything about it. I am glad they took the original off since it was way out of date (few samples of Delta included). Here is a link if you want to check it out: https://www.dshs.texas.gov/coronavirus/variants-data/
Figure 4 is the Fatalities Profile for the 3 Large Population Regions. As introduced last week, the wave of deaths represents the patients who did not recover from their Hospitalization Stay which began 2-3 weeks before. This is an important detail when calculating Fatality Rates since this number is variable depending on Hospitalization Capacity when patients are admitted (increasing, peak, decreasing) and Demographics.
Figure 5 is an E-mail Report received from Galveston County Health Department. I receive these daily - and, as shown, these deaths vary in age. Instead, they are vaccinated and unvaccinated; all have "pre-existing medical conditions". To use an expression, it brings these statistics "to life" and you wonder whether their fate changes anything for their family and neighbors.
These also illustrate the piecemeal list with respect to Dates of Death. Since this data is what they call a "Trailing Metric", I will not reach this part of my plot until November. At that stage, I will have enough data to make calculations and explain what they say.
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