As cooler weather makes its way across the state, windows open and the outdoors becomes a welcome respite from that home office. Our Covid-19 hospitalization metrics are lining out at a very high level. It will take another week before I will decide to get on the decline bandwagon. After all, the Northeast part of the state continues to book case increases and the Panhandle can't seem to break through levels of just 45% Vaccinated. Nevertheless, I am thrilled to get October in my 70% sites for the Gulf Coast. Presidio County could even hit 100%.
Vaccination Report
Last week, I responded to a New York Times graphic that puts Texas in the middle of a trend plotting Cases per 100,000 vs. % population with 1 Vaccine, with South Carolina at to the upper left (high cases, low vaccinations) and Massachusetts to lower right (low cases,, high vaccinations). The title of the article was 1 in 5000, the chances of getting a breakthrough infection ( https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/07/briefing/risk-breakthrough-infections-delta.html ). You have to read the article to see (as you would expect) that chances depend on your state's infection rate. And, as I wrote in my letter, Texans should not use the state number as they report it to judge of the risk associated with resuming "normal" activities - especially if they live in the Panhandle.
Figure 1 provides the usual numbers for each region and indicates that the 1.0% increase overall obtained recently was repeated for Week 78. However, with a Tropical Storm on the way, Galveston County Vaccination Sites have been canceled. I imagine that similar notes have gone out up and down the Gulf Coast. This is unfortunate because this region is on the verge of breaking 60%. Even though Harris (62%), Galveston (61%), and Fort Bend (73%) have been making steady gains, Brazoria, Montgomery, Liberty, Chambers, and Jefferson are lagging 10-15% behind.
A similar breakdown could be made with each region. The point I want to make is that the number 57.8% may be the population averaged number; however, since the state is so spread out, it would also be worthwhile to give the variation.
Figure 2 is my version of the NY Times Graph updated for Week78. Data from the States (e.g. Idaho, S. Carolina, etc.) comes from their Tables, last updated on 9/11. Interestingly, their Texas % fully vaccinated is 8% (absolute) lower than the result obtained by my calculations even though we both use the Texas DSHS as our source.
The other issue is that a "breakthrough" infection for those of us in line to get a booster may be much more severe than younger individuals. Recent accounts I have read ( https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/09/12/1036356773/i-got-a-mild-breakthrough-case-heres-what-i-wish-id-known ) which corroborate with what I heard from a friend of mine in Florida, suggest that regardless of conditions on the ground, I don't want to take any chances. For me, travel, restaurants, gym, and in-person concerts will have to wait until Delta is under much better control.
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