Week 76, 8/23 - 8/29/2021

Covid-19 Hospitalizations have never been as high as they were this past week. Figure 1 graphs the data in units of Covid-19 patients per 100,000 population for each of five parts of the state. From left-to-right, Central Texas reached levels of the peaks

from the previous mid-January. While the Gulf Coast also reached its maximum (41) during the same two weeks, its latest readings put it at 54 per 100,000.. This value is above the US average of 30 and just under Florida (79), Alabama (60 ), and Mississippi (58 ). The Gulf Coast is tied with Louisiana, both higher that Arkansas (45) and Missouri (39). North Texas is also matching its mid-January numbers but not maxed out yet. The Border is the lowest of the set at 29, matching Arizona's reading just like the Gulf Coast and Louisiana. The Panhandle, with 49 Covid-19 patients per 100,000 reached the highest value of this metric, reaching its peak (75) in mid-December. Therefore, I expect it to increase well into the Fall, especially considering how low their %Vaccinated is compared to the rest of the state (see below).

The extent to which Covid-19 patient levels continue to increase along the Gulf Coast and the Panhandle will be a function of how much further hospitals can stretch their capacity. Just this past week, TSA-H(Lufkin) followed by TSA-C(Wichita Falls) and D(Abilene) achieved their fourth round of Patient "doubling" since the end of June. What this means is that Covid-19 Patients have increased their numbers by a factor 16 (1600%) since June 24. This latest round took between 2 and 3 weeks respectively. .Figure 2 shows the status of this metric for a list of TSA-s (see Delta Doubles Down)

The next regions to complete their 4th Doubling (when entries first exceed 16, cells have cyan fill), are TSA-G(Longview/Tyler) and TSA-R(Galveston). Since they completed their 3rd round (when entries first exceed 8, cells have magenta fill) the same week as TSA-C and H, I expect them to continue increasing in a similar order.

Vaccination Rates (increase of 1.3%) rose above those realized in Week 75 (1.0%). They ranged from a low of 41% 12+ fully inoculated in the Panhandle to 73% on the Border. See Figure 2.

To the extent that these numbers continue to grow, Doubling Rates will slow. However, with schools and colleges starting their Fall Semester (in person) and the Labor Day Holiday next week, September could be just as long as August.