In response to high numbers of Covid-19 patients in all regions of the state as well as new information regarding the increased transmissibility of the Delta Variant, vaccination rates came up from last week. With four weeks of Case increases, the state finds itself at the same set of conditions seen last October (leading edge of the Winter Surge) and early February (trailing edge).
Figure 1 is taken from 8/7 Vaccination Data found on the Texas DSHS Website. These usually come out on Fridays; however, during the month of August, there will be drives conducted on Saturdays all over the state. With this extra day, several counties were able to
boost their incremental numbers 1.5% or more (Maverick 3% , La Salle 2.3%, Karnes 1.6%, Hudspeth 3.5%, Hansford 1.6%, Frio 1.9%, Denton 1.9%).
The Border is one week away from reaching the 70% of its eligible population Vaccinated as of Saturday, August 7. There, Presidio County reports 90% vaccinated. When I see newsletters from my Congressman complaining about the Border, I reply with the fact that 10 out of 24 counties on the US/Mexico border have over 60% of their population inoculated, many of these over 70%. In Galveston County, the number is: 55%; Brazoria, 53%; Jefferson, 40% (!). These are the type of numbers that keep Fort Bend (67%) the exception rather than the rule along the Gulf Coast. As a result at current rates, it will take until the end of the year to get to the 70% hurdle. I am not sure how Health Departments will manage to distribute boosters now that these are being discussed for the immunocompromised (those with organ transplants, cancer patients, and those those taking anti-body monoclonal antibody therapy. Those over 65 may or may not be included in the Booster-Eligible group.
Back in the Spring, the Vaccination target was 70% given a conservative estimate of "Herd Immunity"(20-30%). The Delta Variant has thrown this target out of the Pandemic Stadium. While Vaccinations protect against Hospitalization and Death, this version of Covid-19 spreads so quickly that our Hospitals are being flattened with unvaccinated patients. It is an entirely different ballgame now: masks should be worn indoors anytime there is a chance that unvaccinated individuals are on the premises. Students and teachers need our support for wearing masks - and not those thin, blue paper-dolls. (I read today that children will not get a good fit from the standard adult model and NIOSH needs to come up with a separate child standard).
Figure 2 is designed to remind you of where we have been over the past year in terms of Covid-19 Hospitalized Patient Numbers. People believe what they experience and our
current data is at levels that we were at during the week of the Great Texas Freeze (Valentine's Day Weekend). We were on lockdown back then for all practical purposes since it was too cold to go out and everything was closed anyway. Back then, restrictions had not been lifted and we were one month after the numbers had topped out after New Year's. The latest model predictions shows us going back up that curve and then some between now and the end of August.
Figure 3 shows an overlay of Covid-19 Hospitalizations (Blue Bars) and Confirmed Cases (Gold Bars) between the first week of June, 2020 and August 8, 2021 for each of Texas's largest four regions. The data corresponds to the week ending on the x-axis date. For all regions, the 7-day average of Hospitalized Covid-19 Patients is measured from 0 to 3,000; For all regions except the Border, Confirmed Cases are measured in 9,000 Cases/wk increments from 0 to 36,000 Cases/wk. For the Border, the corresponding scale is a factor of 3 smaller: from 0 to 12,000 Cases/wk.
By next week, the Hospitalized Patients scales will need to be resized since in 3 out of the 4 plots, we are going to exceed 3,000. Note that the Border is seeing an increase but not of the same magnitude. Scaling for population differences (Gulf Coast population is 3x's that of the Border) the result (3*544=1632) is less than reported values the Largest Regions for this week (Central Texas=1865 Covid Patients, N. Texas= 2551, Gulf Coast=2749). As expected with the Border's 70% overall Vaccination Rate, it ranks below those of the "Big Three". The Panhandle scaling factor of 6 is used to put it on a Gulf Coast Population Basis. The result, (6*369=2214) is in line with the Big 3. One might wonder why the number is not greater. I have two theories to be explored once students return to Lubbock and classes begin at Texas Tech.
Cases may not represent all the infected people since many get reported through future backdating. Also, probable cases are not shown and these get reclassified if a positive PCR result if obtained. In general, there are roughly twice as many cases for this surge as there were in the Winter Surge for equal Covid-19 Hospitalization. The Article, Delta Doubles Down, to be published on this site on Monday evening discusses Doubling Rates and compares recent increases with those seen last Fall.
Figure 4, below is an updated summary of the State.
Comments