Surge 4 is in full swing with hospitals all over the state scrambling for hospital beds and room in the ICU. While Vaccinations were said to have increased, they won't show up in my numbers until the new "patients" get their second dose three weeks from now. In the meanwhile, Cases are doubling every 10 days now.
Figure 1 is the most recent plot of per capita Hospitalizations vs. % Vaccinated. This plot is similar to those presented in earlier reports. Here, the y-axis is scaled by total population (2019 census) to put all regions on same basis. This plot is a way of depicting the "race" between Vaccinations and Hospitalizations. If the trend is decreasing the Virus is not spreading; alternatively, when the trend increases the density of unvaccinated individuals is large enough that hospitalizations take off. In between these two regions, there is a period of "steady state" where the spread is equal to the hospital Covid patient release-plus-death rate so that Covid-19 Hospitalization numbers stay constant.
All five regions have a decreasing trend followed by a constant period followed by an increasing section. They differ in the range of each section. The Border with Texas's highest % of its population vaccinated is able to hold off the surge longer than other parts of the state. At the other extreme, the Panhandle takes off with only a short period of decreasing hospitalizations before demand for Covid-19 beds increases. Note that the Hospitalization Increases occur in all parts of the state one week after July 4 holiday. As shown, the change in slope of each curve occurs at the % 12+ Vaccinated on that date: from largest to smallest: Border, Central, Gulf Coast, North, and Panhandle.
Figure 2 provides the Vaccination Status by region. Given recent coverage, the demand for
shots has picked up; however, the Table only counts fully vaccinated individuals. These will not be included until the second dose is completed which won't be for another three to four weeks. According to these results, the state picked up only .5% or an incremental 122.7k fully vaccinated individuals. At this rate, Texas will need 9 more months (!) to reach the target 70%. That is not to say that the Border will not get there sooner or El Paso, Travis, and Fort Bend Counties reach this level of inoculation before school starts.
Figure 3. are the usual Hospitalization Bar Graphs that show how the state is reverting to previous Hospitalization Occupancy Levels. As indicated, we are seeing
occupancy rates similar to late October/Early November on the way up and late February/early March on the way down. The difference between last Winter (Phase 4) and this latest round is that, presently, there are no business restrictions or mask mandates in place with just over half of Texans vaccinated.
Figure 4 shows Cases and 7-day Averaged Hospitalizations for the state as a whole. One can see how, following the July 4th long holiday weekend, the New Confirmed Case were numbers were small and not notable. It was only when hospitalization numbers began to climb that the two combined to show that another surge was in progress.
Figure 5 shows the breakdown by Region. Given the increase over Week 71, I had to rescale the axis between 0 and 24,000 cases per week ( Border scale is still 0 to 12,000). In three out of four regions, present Hospitalizations are very roughly half of their Maximum Winter Surge value. These correspond
with Cases that are larger than their Winter Surge counterparts (on the downside of the peak, February, March values). This result goes along with the finding that the Delta Variant is more Transmissible. Finally, Cases begin to increase 1 to 2 weeks in advance of an increase in Average Hospitalizations.
With only self-imposed mask wearing and some social distancing, data will continue to increase at this very fast pace. And with Arkansas and Louisiana just across the Eastern Texas border, the hottest of the nation's Hot Spots may expand our way. Presently, the Trauma Service Areas F(Paris), G(Longview), H(Lufkin), and R(Galveston) are at risk. In contrast to the high Vaccination Rates achieved along the US/Mexico Border, this Eastern Boundary is below 50%.
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